Scenario planning is a structured method for exploring possible futures. Instead of trying to predict what will happen, organizations use scenario planning to map a range of plausible futures and prepare for each. The result: better decisions today, regardless of how tomorrow unfolds.
In a scenario planning workshop or interactive session, participants move through the complete process together: from identifying relevant developments to building scenarios, analyzing them and drawing concrete lessons for strategy and policy.
What is scenario planning?
Most organizations plan for one future: the one they expect. Scenario planning challenges that assumption. It asks: what if things develop differently? By building multiple coherent stories about the future, teams develop the strategic flexibility to respond, regardless of what actually happens.
The method was pioneered in the 1970s at Shell, where planners used it to prepare for oil price shocks that competitors had not anticipated. Since then, scenario planning has been adopted by governments, hospitals, universities and companies worldwide as a tool for long-term strategy and organizational resilience.
How does scenario planning work?
A scenario planning process follows four steps. First, the most important uncertainties are identified: which developments could significantly affect your organization in the next 5 to 15 years? Second, those uncertainties are combined into two to four internally consistent stories about how the future could unfold. Third, the implications of each story are analyzed for your organization, sector or strategy. Fourth, lessons are drawn: which decisions make sense across all scenarios, and where do you need to stay flexible?
The strength of the method lies in the conversation it generates. Scenario planning forces teams to think beyond their assumptions and consider futures they would otherwise ignore. It is one of the core methods used in strategic foresight.
Scenario planning in practice
EXAMPLES
Workshop I conducted with Professor Nico van Yperen (third from left) at Topsport Community at the KNVB Campus in Zeist.
Workshop I gave a students of the Hogeschool van Amsterdam 10K Incubator program.
Scenario planning applications
Healthcare
Technology is changing health care in many facets. In this workshop, participants will address questions such as: what will healthcare look like in the future and what does that mean for caregivers, nurses and doctors?
In the final part of the meeting, we will translate these scenarios into concrete action items and future-proof strategies.
I conducted workshops in this theme among the Martini Hospital Groningen, Care Education Innovators of Bohn Stafleu van Loghum and the Bildung Academy.
Innovation
The climate crisis, an aging population and further technologization are relevant megatrends affecting the future of organizations, governments and society.
In this workshop, I explore with participants how a consumer, user or resident lives in the future, what they do and what drives them. Using practical tools, we will engage in a creative work format that helps you think outside the box.
I conducted workshops in this theme at Etos and the Dutch Police, among others.
People improvement
Through methods such as genetic modification, brain-computer interfaces and nanotechnology, scientists and companies are increasingly able to improve humans. Other designations for this trend include Homo Deus, the makeable man and the superman. In this session, participants describe and depict improvement technologies in the future, benefits, risks and consequences.
I conducted workshops in this theme at Beam Gent (Belgium), the Goois Lyceum and the University of Eindhoven, among others.
What participants say
“I learned many new things. Namely about how to use storytelling to outline certain future scenarios in a short period of time.”
— Nesrin Gunes, workshop participant, TU Eindhoven student
“Peter takes students into the future, makes them think about opportunities and risks around technology (brain-computer interfaces) and provides an active attitude in lessons. Students are stimulated to anticipate and come up with the creative and innovative ideas.”
— Jorien de Nigtere, teacher at Goois Lyceum Bussum
“I found it especially interesting that we were given four simple cards with which to create a scenario. With that, it was very easy to already think of a whole story around it and to see what the future might look like later.”
— Julie van der Hijde, workshop participant, TU Eindhoven student
Work with a scenario planning expert
Interested in a scenario planning workshop or trajectory for your organization? As a strategic foresight expert, Peter Joosten leads scenario planning sessions for leadership teams, boards and educational institutions across Europe.
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